New analysis highlights the role of ending deforestation and conversion in meeting climate goals

For most companies that produce or source agriculture or forestry products, eliminating deforestation and conversion of grasslands, savannahs, and other ecosystems from supply chains is the single most impactful action that can be taken to advance climate goals.

For these companies, emissions from deforestation and conversion make up a large amount—usually the majority—of their land sector (or FLAG) emissions. Emissions from land use change stay in a company’s climate footprint far into the future following land use change events. Therefore, companies that want to take climate action should prioritise reducing land use change as quickly as possible in their supply chains and across sourcing areas. 

Modelling reveals critical interventions 

To better understand the importance of acting on deforestation and conversion in reducing carbon emissions from agriculture, the AFi worked with consultancy AdAstra to take a close look at available data on emissions associated with commodity production. We compared the impacts of different sourcing decisions or interventions that companies can make to reduce deforestation and conversion in their supply chains. These actions included sourcing certified commodity volumes, sourcing commodities from farms that are compliant with the EU Deforestation Regulation, and engaging suppliers or other stakeholders to halt future deforestation. To complete the picture, we also looked at other interventions, such as improving practices to increase yields or sequester carbon. We then modelled the relative contribution of each of these possible actions to overall emissions reduction trajectories. 

The models showed that for an average company sourcing soy from Brazil, palm oil from Malaysia, or cocoa from Ghana, land use change emissions made up at least two-thirds of all FLAG emissions, and in some cases far more. For example, our model of a company sourcing soy from Brazil showed that conversion of grasslands, savannahs, and pastures accounts for half of all FLAG emissions, with deforestation making up another 17%. Similarly, a hypothetical company sourcing palm oil from Malaysia would find that two-thirds of FLAG emissions came from peatland conversion and draining, with deforestation making up another fifth of emissions. And a company sourcing cocoa from Ghana would see an average of 88% of FLAG emissions arising from forest clearance. 

Improved land management, such as via regenerative agriculture, also has an important role in reducing emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere. For example, soy farms have the potential to sequester soil carbon if they move from tillage to no-till cultivation. Most strikingly in our data, cocoa farms have the potential for significant emissions reductions through better practices such as increasing yields and composting cocoa pods. Cocoa farms also have opportunities for carbon sequestration through tree planting and management associated with a transition to agroforestry systems. However, these potential gains are generally significantly smaller than those associated with avoiding and reducing deforestation and conversion. 

Take action on land use emissions

For companies that are feeling overwhelmed and not sure where to start on their climate journeys, the Accountability Framework can help. Its guidance supports companies with setting commitments to no-deforestation, no-conversion, and respect for human rights in agricultural and forestry commodity supply chains. Implementing those commitments will put companies on a path to meaningful and measurable progress towards their goals for people, climate, and nature. 

To get started with the Accountability Framework, visit our page on addressing land sector greenhouse gas emissions through supply chain action. Further analyses and technical documentation associated with this project will be available soon. For a sneak peek of model outputs for soy in Brazil, palm oil in Malaysia, and cocoa in Ghana, download some of the project’s initial findings here. All land use change data used in this study is available on AdAstra’s Orbae platform.